"Forecasting the future of markets and of economies is much harder than forecasting the weather, since the weather is not influenced by the forecasts made by us, whereas markets are. Markets, and to a lesser extent economies, will adjust now in response to future expectations, so that future changes are bound to be driven primarily by what is currently unpredictable. In this book, David Stamp enjoyably shows how fallible are such forecasts. Too true, yet the public demand for them, particularly by exactly the same politicians who claim to be most sceptical, shows no signs of abating. One needs a balanced judgment on the uses and abuses of economic forecasting. This book is good on the potential abuses of forecasts. I hope that he will also write a companion on how to use forecasts more sensibly."
Charles Goodhart, Professor of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics.